Enter your retirement planning information below to calculate your retirement projections.
Run probabilistic simulations to understand the range of possible retirement outcomes. Monte Carlo analysis accounts for market volatility and uncertainty.
Running Monte Carlo simulation... This may take a moment.
--
Probability of meeting goals--
Confidence your planned spending survives--
Age by which 25% of plans have depleted--
Number of scenarios tested| Quintile | First 5yr avg | Success | Median final |
|---|
| Outcome | Count | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Successful | -- | -- |
| Failed | -- | -- |
Among failing plans, median depletion is at age --.
Typical shortfall is -- in today’s dollars.
Shortfall is the total unmet spending need across all retirement years in a failed simulation.
Median worst peak-to-trough loss across all plans: --.
In your 10th-percentile (worst) outcomes, drawdown reaches --.
A drawdown is the biggest drop from a portfolio peak to a trough. Useful for anticipating how bad a market downturn might feel emotionally, not just mathematically.
Two plans can share the same success rate and feel very different in practice. One might fail gracefully at age 92 with a small shortfall; another might fail at 75 with a huge gap. The Depletion Risk card up top and the when things go wrong stats on the left give you the shape of the failure, not just its presence.
This is the most underrated lever in retirement. Real retirees already do this (skip the renovation, delay the trip) when markets stumble; the deterministic projection can’t show the value of that optionality.
If your pre-retirement volatility drops from -- to -- during your last -- working years, success rate moves from -- to --, with median final balance changing by --.
Shifting from stocks to bonds in the years just before retirement — a “bond tent” — trades some upside for lower sequence-of-returns risk right when it matters most.
| Percentile | Final Balance | Today's Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| 10th (Worst 10%) | -- | -- |
| 25th | -- | -- |
| 50th (Median) | -- | -- |
| 75th | -- | -- |
| 90th (Best 10%) | -- | -- |
Shown on the Balance Trajectories chart in the Overview tab at the retirement-age point.
| Confidence Level | Annual Spending | Today's Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Planned (--% Confidence) | -- | -- |
| 80% Confidence | -- | -- |
| 90% Confidence | -- | -- |
| 95% Confidence | -- | -- |
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Export your Monte Carlo simulation results to Excel for further analysis, sharing, or documentation.
Comprehensive analysis with 10 tabs including:
File size: ~80-150 KB
Best for: Most users, quick sharing, presentations
Everything in Summary Export PLUS:
File size: ~250-300 KB (1000 simulations)
Best for: Advanced analysis, custom calculations, research
Calculating your retirement plan...